Posted by
john on Tuesday, December 09, 2008 12:48:26 AM
Today's ITD comes from Peter Thiel, principal of Clarium Capital Management, a "global macro" (I think that means "big picture") hedge fund. Mr. Thiel made the following observations on CNBC today with Maria Bartiromo.
"I think the economy will stabilize faster than people think, then have more problems down the road than people think...
"We got into this mess because of excessive debt, and we're going to get out of it by papering over it with more debt?"
I think this is consistent with my recent observations. (Obviously, this should be much more impressive to me than to the highly-esteemed Mr. Thiel.) First, Mr. Thiel's view is consistent with my belief that as pure panic abates (.01% 1/mo.; .01% 3/mo.!), both the economy and the stock market will rebound somewhat. After all, all that money on the sidelines is going to go somewhere. Second, we have yet to hear anything from any source indicating that inflation, down the road, is not going to be an issue. Take a look at the action in commodity and infrastructure stocks, as well as the home builders.